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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday 19 July 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Week beginning July 20

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Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2127, 2.41%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8610, 2.98%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3957, 2.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1132, -2.64%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
50.78, -3.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.50, -1.81%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1048, 19.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.0846, -2.81%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
124.05, 1.05%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
8294, 1.12%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.35%, -2.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-211, 47.60%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.95, -29%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2092, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2102, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2060, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8434, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8309, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8393, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.80, -13.81%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
63.49, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
11
12

Bearish Indications
4
4

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was up last week while the Nifty out performed. Indicators are bullish.  Market cycles are not favorable into mid August, so I am looking for a top in this move up.


On the Horizon
RBA and BOE minutes, Australia CPI, US home sales, New Zealand rate decision, UK and Canada retail sales, Australia trade balance






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


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Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Bearish divergences and unfavorable market cycles into August however make me look for a near term top. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison.
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Cash - 40%
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Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.