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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday 27 September 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 28


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1931, -1.36%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
7869, -1.42%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3092, -0.18%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1146, 0.56%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
45.34, 0.04%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.28, -4.14%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
943, -1.77%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1194, -0.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
120.60, 0.75%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
7851, -2.31%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.17%, 1.78%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-365, 2.98%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
23.62, 6.01%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1955, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2023, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2065, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7832, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8187, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8389, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
20.88, 14.16%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.14,0.44%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
2
3

Bearish Indications
10
11

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish.
We are entering a weak period for risk assets globally and massive declines are likely in both indices in the upcoming months.


On the Horizon
 RBI Policy, US Personal Consumption & Consumer Confidence, German & EU CPI, Canada GDP, US & China PMI Data, US & German Employment Data,






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


 The markets resumed their downtrend last week. Signals are strongly bearish for the upcoming week and markets are in #crash mode. The #SandP500 and several global indices are completing massive bear flags which are resolving to the downside. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming days. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.