About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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US Stock Market Snapshot

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Monday, 29 February 2016

India Union Budget 2016-17

How does this budget stack up in comparison to earlier budgets? Here are some key line item comparisons via a terrific infographic from rediff.com:

Sunday, 28 February 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 29

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1948, 1.58%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7030, -2.51%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2767, -3.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1223, -0.31%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
32.84, 10.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.11, 1.66%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
327, 3.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.102, -0.99%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
113.97, 1.26%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
7405, 1.63%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
33.07, 2.13%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.76%, 0.8%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-139, 70.20%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
19.81, -3.51%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1905, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1944, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2027, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7211, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7472, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
7973, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
21.86, 4.54%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
68.79, 0.11%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

10

8
Bearish Indications
4
8
Outlook
Bullish
Neutral
Observation
The Sand P 500 rallied while the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
Markets are back at resistance. Looking for a retest of the recent lows soon.
On the Horizon
China - PMI, Australia – Rate decision, GDP, Euro zone – CPI, German employment data, Switzerland – GDP, Canada – GDP, U.S – ISM data, Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market rallied last week while the Nifty tested its recent lows and fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016, looking for a retest of the recent lows soon. The Nifty will likely make new lows this week post the budget announcement. The critical levels to watch are 1960 (up) and 1930 (down) on the S & P and 7100 (up) and 7000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Wednesday, 24 February 2016

Good and Great Analysts

There are many market analysts out there today offering all sorts of views and analysis. Only a handful of them are consistently good. Only a fraction of these are great. So what differentiates a good analyst from a great one? Have a look at this terrific infographic put together by Quandl.


Sunday, 21 February 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 22

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1918, 2.84%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7211, 3.29%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2860, 3.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1227, -0.96%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
31.96, 10.13%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.08, 2.29%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
315, 8.25%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.111, -1.30%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
112.64, -0.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7286, 3.37%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
32.38, 1.19%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.75%, 0.0%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
-467, 30.06%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
20.53, -19.17%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1893, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1954, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2031, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7307, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7532, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8000, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
20.92, -15.23%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.71, 0.88%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

10

10
Bearish Indications
5
7
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty bounced back last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are back at resistance. Looking for a retest of the recent lows.
On the Horizon
Japan - CPI, Euro zone – German CPI, U.K – GDP, U.S – Consumer confidence data, Durable goods, Trade balance, GDP, Personal consumption data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market and Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016, looking for a retest of the recent lows. The critical levels to watch are 1940 (up) and 1900 (down) on the S & P and 7300 (up) and 7100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.