About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 27 March 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 28

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2036, -0.67%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
7717, 1.47%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2961, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1217, -3.13%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
39.59, -3.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.24, -2.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
401, 2.30%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.117, -0.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
112.86, 1.19%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
7926, -1.85%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
34.15, -1.13%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.90%, 1.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
990, 7.97%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
14.74, 5.14%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2007, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1941, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2017, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7416, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7364, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7902, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
16.34, -0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Rupee
66.92, 0.80%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

6

5
Bearish Indications
9
11
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The Sand P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish.
Markets are back at resistance. Time to tighten those stops as downside may resume any moment.
On the Horizon
China – PMI, Euro Zone - CPI, German CPI, German employment data, U.S – Trade balance, Personal consumption expenditure, Consumer confidence, Employment data, ISM, Canada - GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The US market fell and the Nifty rallied in a holiday shortened week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 as the recent rally has almost concluded. A big move is imminent.  The critical levels to watch are 2050 (up) and 2030 (down) on the S & P and 7750 (up) and 7650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Wednesday, 23 March 2016

Interesting Charts from StockTwits

Thought I would take a look at some interesting charts from my feed on StockTwits:


1) The first chart is from User ColoradoGuy on StockTwits suggesting a bearish reversal ahead:



2) The next chart from User Johnkicklighter on StockTwits show speculative shorts at very high levels as the market has been rallying:

3) User Jakewu92 on StockTwits points out some important resistance ahead on the S & P 500:



4) Another interesting chart from User TheInformedTrader pointing out some key resistance ahead:

Sunday, 20 March 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 21

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2050, 1.35%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7604, 1.25%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2955, 5.15%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1256, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
41.13, 6.86%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.29, 2.24%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
392, 2.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.132, 1.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.59, -1.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8076, 4.97%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
34.54, 0.61%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.87%, -5.36%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
917, 34.35%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
14.02, -15.03%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1986, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1932, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2017, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7337, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7356, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7909, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
16.38, -4.18%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.38, -0.89%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

14

15
Bearish Indications
1
2
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are back at resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – CPI, U.K-CPI, U.S – Durable goods
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The US market and Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 once this rally concludes. A big move is imminent.  The critical levels to watch are 2060 (up) and 2040 (down) on the S & P and 7650 (up) and 7550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.