About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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US Stock Market Snapshot

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Tuesday, 26 April 2016

The Case for a Global Recession in 2017 and Beyond – The Obvious Evidence

Sunday, 24 April 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 25

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2092, 0.52%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7899, 0.62%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2959, -3.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1234, -0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
43.75, 4.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.27, 5.34%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
659, 8.35%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.129, 0.07%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
111.71, 2.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
8086, 1.35%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.04, 1.39%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.88%, 7.76%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
1168, 14.48%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
13.22, -2.94%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2069, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2013, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2015, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7724, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7462, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7864, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
16.38, 2.15%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.66, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
13

12
Bearish Indications
2
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied slightly last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are back at resistance. Time to tighten those stops as downside may resume any moment.
On the Horizon
Australia - CPI, New Zealand – Rate decision, Japan - Rate decision, CPI, China – PMI, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, Euro zone CPI, GDP, U.K – GDP, Canada – GDP, U.S – Durable goods, Consumer confidence, FOMC rate decision, Personal consumption data, GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 as the recent rally is about to conclude. A big move is imminent.  The critical levels to watch are 2100 (up) and 2080 (down) on the S & P and 7950 (up) and 7850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.



Thursday, 21 April 2016

Chart of the Day - Velocity of Money

The chart of the day shows the velocity of money (data courtesy the St. Louis Fed) since 1959. It shows that the velocity of money is below levels observed in 1959. The velocity of money typically rises during periods of growth and falls during recessionary periods. So the recent plunge to new lows suggests that QE's from global central banks have really not worked and a major recession may just be lurking around the corner.
velocity of money

Monday, 18 April 2016

Chart of the Day - Investor Credit

The chart of the day is from Advisorperspectives and it shows that Margin debt in investor accounts continues to be at alarming levels and has eclipsed levels seen prior to market melt downs in 2000 and 2008. Is history about to repeat itself again?
margin debt

Sunday, 17 April 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 18

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2081, 1.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7850, 3.91%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3078, 3.12%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1236, -0.35%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
41.75, 5.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.15, 3.26%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
635, 17.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.126, -1.15%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
108.66, 0.55%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
7978, 3.13%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
34.56, 1.23%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.75%, 1.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
1020, 8.46%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
13.62, -11.33%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2056, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1990, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2014, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7646, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7424, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7873, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
16.03, -2.42%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.61, 0.10%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
14

13
Bearish Indications
2
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are back at resistance. Time to tighten those stops as downside may resume any moment.
On the Horizon
New Zealand – CPI, Euro Zone – ZEW Survey, Rate decision, Canada – CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The US market and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency. The Yen is suggesting that global risk appetite is waning significantly. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 as the recent rally is about to conclude. A big move is imminent.  The critical levels to watch are 2090 (up) and 2070 (down) on the S & P and 7900 (up) and 7800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.