About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Tuesday, 31 May 2016

Chart of the Day - Time Taken to Reach Prior Highs

The chart of the day is courtesy Mark Hulbert via Marketwatch.com and shows the time taken for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to reach prior highs since the early 1900's. The current market has spent more than a year in trying to reach its prior high and has taken over 410 days to reach recent new highs, eclipsing the 379 days it took in the bull market correction of the 1990's making further new highs more and more elusive:
time to new highs

Sunday, 29 May 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 30

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2099, 2.28%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8157, 5.25%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2821, -0.16%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1215,-3.00%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
49.56, 2.23%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.11, 2.65%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
606, -3.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.119, -0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
110.34, 0.18%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
7772, 1.31%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.27, 0.80%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.85%, 0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
732, 1.16%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
13.12, -13.68%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2064, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2066, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2011, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7842, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7769, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7786, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.26, -7.09%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.03, -0.60%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10

12
Bearish Indications
2
2
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied strong last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China –PMI, Australia – GDP, Euro Zone –German CPI, Employment data, Euro zone CPI, ECB rate decision,
Switzerland – GDP,  U.S – ISM, Personal consumption expenditure, Consumer confidence, Employment data, Canada – GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied big last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2110 (up) and 2080 (down) on the S & P and 8200 (up) and 8100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 26 May 2016

Interesting Jim Rogers Interview

A very interesting interview that legendary investor Jim Rogers did recently where he discusses an imminent global recession:

Tuesday, 24 May 2016

Chart of the Day - Bradley Siderograph

The chart if the day is the Bradley Siderograph via kirklindstrom.com and serves as an useful tool to detect trend changes in the market. It doesn't indicate market direction but can be used to identify key inflection points. It is better used in conjunction with other indicators than in isolation. The key dates for 2016 are shown below:
bradley


Sunday, 22 May 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 23

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2052, 0.28%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
7750, -0.83%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2826, -0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1253,-1.68%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
48.48, 3.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.06, -1.03%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
625, 4.17%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.120, -0.92%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.12, 1.40%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
7672, 2.19%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
34.99, 0.55%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.85%, 8.45%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
723, -21.56%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
15.20, 1.06%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2065, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2061, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2011, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7835, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7726, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7799, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
16.42, -3.37%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.43, 0.79%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6

7
Bearish Indications
8
9
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The Sand P 500 was relatively unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
Markets are breaking down from resistance. Time to tighten those stops as downside has resumed.
On the Horizon
Japan – CPI, England – GDP, U.S – durable goods, GDP, Canada – Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency. The markets are breaking down from resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 as the recent rally appears to have concluded. A big move is imminent.  The critical levels to watch are 2060 (up) and 2040 (down) on the S & P and 7800 (up) and 7700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.