About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

US Stock Market Snapshot

[ View the story "US Stock Market Snapshot" on Storify ]

Ad

Wednesday, 31 August 2016

Chart of the Week - BOJ Stock Market Casino

The chart of the week is courtesy Doug Wakefield via Safe Haven and shows that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is a top 10 share holder in about 90% of the Nikkei 225. This after the Nikkei has been down nearly 60% since its highs in 1989. After multiple QE's that have failed to stimulate the economy and get rid of the deflationary negative interest rate scenario in Japan, this latest move by the BOJ has failure written all over it. Another down move in the Nikkei from a strengthening Yen could prove to be problematic for the BOJ going forward.

BOJ is Top 10 Shareholder in about 90% of Nikkei 225

Daily Market Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index:

Tuesday, 30 August 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the US Dollar and the British Pound:

Monday, 29 August 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the US Dollar:

Sunday, 28 August 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 29

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2169, -0.68%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8573, -1.09%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3070, -1.22%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1326, -1.51%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
47.64, -2.99%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.08, -3.81%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
720, 5.42%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.120, -1.13%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
101.77, 1.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
7825, -1.33%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.54, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.64%, 3.61%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
879, -11.42%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.65, 20.37%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2178, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2144, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2052, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8630, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8482, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7890, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.57, -6.66%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.16, 0.05%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
4

5
Bearish Indications
11
11
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
Markets are breaking down from the top of their recent trading ranges. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – PMI, Canada - GDP, Euro zone – German employment data, CPI, Euro Zone CPI, U.S – Consumer confidence, Employment data, ISM
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency despite the market making nominal new highs and momentum, breadth and sentiment indicators are showing divergences.  The markets are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 which could start any moment now. The critical levels to watch are 2180 (up) and 2160 (down) on the S & P and 8650 (up) and 8500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Friday, 26 August 2016

Key Markets Ahead of Jackson Hole

The anticipation has been building up as we head into Jackson Hole to hear from the Fed. Risk appetite has been fading. Here is a look at some key markets from the currency strategists at dailyfx as we head into the big event:

Thursday, 25 August 2016

S & P 500 Daily Outlook

Here is a daily view on the US stock market S and P 500 index from the analysts at Financial Doors. It covers the fundamentals and technicals of the S and P 500 index along with some of the key economic news of the day.

Tuesday, 23 August 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the Kiwi Dollar:

Chart of the Week - S & P 500 real sales growth

The chart of the week is via multpl.com and tracks real sales growth of the S & P 500 companies. Real sales growth as measured by the annual change in sales adjusted for inflation entered negative territory in 2015 and continues to remain so. The last time this occurred was in 2009. Will there be a similar price adjustment to reflect the declining fundamentals?

s & p 500 real sales growth

Sunday, 21 August 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the S & P 500 and the Yen:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 22

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2184, -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8667, -0.05%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3108, 1.88%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1346, 0.22%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
49.11, 10.38%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.17, 1.26%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
683, 1.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.133, 1.40%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
100.19, -1.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7930, 1.58%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.54, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.58%, 4.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
992, -6.87%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.34, -1.82%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2176, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2135, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2050, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8628, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8437, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7876, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.54, 5.57%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.12, 0.32%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10

10
Bearish Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are at the top of their recent trading ranges. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – CPI,
U.K – GDP,
US – Durable Goods, Trade balance, GDP, Janet Yellen speech
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency despite the market making nominal new highs and momentum, breadth and sentiment indicators are showing divergences.  The markets are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2190 (up) and 2170 (down) on the S & P and 8750 (up) and 8550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Stock Market News

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Trader Talk

An Amazing Forex Product

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

Refurbished MacBooks

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.