About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Thursday, 29 September 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at waning risk appetite stemming from a slide in bank stocks across the globe:

Wednesday, 28 September 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the up move in Oil following a possible OPEC production cut :

Tuesday, 27 September 2016

Indicator Watch - How to Use the RSI in Trading

Technical indicators are widely used in trading to determine market direction over different time frames. One of the widely followed technical indicators is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Here is a useful video from MarketGurukul.com that shows you how to use the RSI in identifying entry and exit levels in trading:

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at a possible dollar rally ahead:

Monday, 26 September 2016

Chart of the Week - Technicals of Key Indices

The chart of the week is courtesy Marty Chenard at stocktiming.com and takes a technical look at some key indices. While most indices are above key resistance levels going back to 2014 the broadest of them all the Nyse composite index (NYA) is still below key resistance levels. Will the NYA join the other indices or the other indices begin to roll over will be worth watching in the upcoming months.

stock market indices 1

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at possible range break outs in the Yen, Pound and the S & P 500:

Sunday, 25 September 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 26

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2165, 1.19%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8832, 0.59%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3034, 1.03%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1342, 2.40%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
44.48, 1.97%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.20, 1.90%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
941, 17.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.123, 0.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
101.00, -1.21%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7937, 2.14%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.51, 1.02%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.62%, -5.06%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
572, 4.15%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.29, -20.04%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2161, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2169, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2061, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8780, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8676, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7974, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.25, -9.14%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.70, -0.56%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
13

17
Bearish Indications
2
1
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – PMI, Japan – CPI, Canada - GDP, Euro zone – German employment data, CPI, Euro Zone CPI, U.S. - Consumer confidence, Durable goods
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

StockTwits Charts



The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week on the FED. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators are still highly complacent and a big breakdown will likely start soon.  The markets are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016. The critical levels to watch are 2175 (up) and 2150 (down) on the S & P and 8900 (up) and 8700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison.  Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 22 September 2016

Indicator Watch - How to Use the MACD in Trading?

Technical indicators are widely used in trading to determine market direction over different time frames. One of the widely followed technical indicators is the moving average cross over divergence (MACD). Here is a useful video from the currency strategists at FXStreet that shows you how to use the MACD in identifying entry and exit levels in trading:

Wednesday, 21 September 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at markets post key monetary policy decisions from the BOJ and the FED:

Tuesday, 20 September 2016

Daily Forex Insight for Fed Day

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the FOMC, BOJ and RBNZ central bank meetings:

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the Yen ahead of the upcoming BOJ rate decision:

Monday, 19 September 2016

Massive M top in Nifty completing and targeting 6000

Check out this chart on the Nifty from StockCharts.com. A massive M top has completed on the Nifty that targets 6000 long term. This incidentally coincides with a trailing P/E of over 24 which is suggestive of over valuation. Note the recent exhaustion candle much like in March 2015 from which the market fell 25%.


stock charts 1

Sunday, 18 September 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at important central bank meetings ahead namely the BOJ and the FOMC:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 19

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2139, 0.53%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8780, -0.98%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3003, -2.47%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1310, -1.82%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
43.62, -4.93%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.16, 3.23%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
800, -0.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.116, -0.67%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
102.27, -0.38%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
7770, -1.56%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.14, -0.03%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.70%, 1.73%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
549, -27.59%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
15.37, -12.17%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2166, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2168, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2059, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8739, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8635, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7952, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.58, 10.20%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.08, 0.21%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
3

6
Bearish Indications
10
9
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 bounced and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
Markets are breaking down from the top of their recent trading ranges. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – Rate decision, New Zealand – Rate decision, Canada – CPI,
US – FOMC rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock twits charts 1

The S and P 500 rebounded slightly and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators are still highly complacent and a big breakdown is likely underway.  The markets are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016. The critical levels to watch are 2150 (up) and 2130 (down) on the S & P and 8900 (up) and 8700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.