About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

The Case for a Global Recession in 2017 and Beyond – The Obvious Evidence

[ View the story "Recession Upcoming?" on Storify ]

Ad

Wednesday, 30 November 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at whether the big market moves in November are here to stay:

Tuesday, 29 November 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at oil and the Canadian Dollar ahead of the OPEC meeting:

Monday, 28 November 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the macro themes in play this week:

Sunday, 27 November 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the key economic reports ahead this week like the payroll data out of the US:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 28

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2213, 1.44%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8114, 0.50%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3262, 1.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1178, -2.51%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
46.06, -0.65%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.67, 8.13%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1181, -6.05%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.06, 0.10%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
113.08, 1.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9044, 2.12%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.09, 1.32%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.37%, 1.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
34, 118.39%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.34, -3.97%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2152, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2156, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2103, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8301, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8544, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8144, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.61, -1.08%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.52, 0.50%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
11

9
Bearish Indications
4
8
Outlook
Bulllish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The oversold bounce has turned overbought and downside is about to resume. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China - PMI, Euro zone – German employment data, CPI, Euro Zone CPI, Switzerland – GDP, Canada - Employment data, GDP, U.S – Consumer confidence, Personal consumption expenditure, GDP, ISM data,  Employment data, OPEC meet
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

S and P 500 rising wedge


The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode and a big breakdown will likely start soon. A big move is coming very soon in the markets. Bond yields have made a dramatic surge up and risky segments of the market like emerging markets are breaking down on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2220 (up) and 2200 (down) on the S & P and 8200 (up) and 8000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 24 November 2016

Mark Mobius on the Trump Effect

In a recent interview on CNBC TV 18, legendary investor Mark Mobius discusses the recent under performance by emerging markets post the Trump election win. Here are the details:

Wednesday, 23 November 2016

Chart of the Week - Combined Valuation of Equities and Bonds

The chart of the Week is courtesy Seventeen Mile via Seeking Alpha and shows the combined value of stocks and bonds since 2003. Thanks to the FED engineered asset bubble the combined valuation is testing all time highs made in 2015 prior to a 15% sell off in the S and P 500. Recently bonds have endured a significant and sharp sell off. Equities are likely to follow suit.
valuation

Tuesday, 22 November 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the key trends that are likely to play out for the rest of the year:

Monday, 21 November 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the surging dollar and the S & P 500:

Recent Big Moves in Key Markets

A very interesting video from the Financial Times that looks at some very big moves in some key asset classes across the globe. This includes the recent rout in global bonds and emerging market currencies following the election of Donald Trump as the 45th US president:

Saturday, 19 November 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 21

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2182, 0.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8074, -2.68%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3193, -0.10%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1209, -1.27%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
46.36, 6.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.47, -1.65%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1257, 20.29%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.059, -2.47%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.89, 3.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
8857, 3.24%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.62, 1.39%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.34%, 10.30%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-182, 39.02%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.85, -9.32%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2143, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2146, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2096, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8469, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8633, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8131, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.81, 2.53%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
68.15, 0.90%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
11

7
Bearish Indications
4
10
Outlook
Bulllish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are mixed.
The oversold bounce is largely over and downside is about to resume. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan - CPI, U.K – Budget, GDP, U.S – Trade balance, Durable goods, FED minutes
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

s and p 500 rising wedge

The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell hard last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode and a big breakdown will likely start soon. A big move is coming very soon in the markets. Bond yields have made a dramatic surge up and risky segments of the market like high yield and emerging markets are breaking down on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2190 (up) and 2170 (down) on the S & P and 8200 (up) and 8000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



Offers

Stock Market News

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Trader Talk

An Amazing Forex Product

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

Refurbished MacBooks

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.