About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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The Case for a Global Recession in 2017 and Beyond – The Obvious Evidence

[ View the story "Recession Upcoming?" on Storify ]

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Thursday, 29 December 2016

Daily Forex Insight - 2017 Outlook

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the outlook for the forex majors in 2017:

Wednesday, 28 December 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at some key risks ahead for markets in 2017:

Tuesday, 27 December 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the increasing volatility in the Euro, Yen and the Pound:

Sunday, 25 December 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 26

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2264, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
7986, -1.89%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3110, -0.41%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1134, -0.33%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
53.02, 0.13%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.48, -3.33%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
961, 1.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.045, 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
117.33, -0.53%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9191, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
36.66, 1.02%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.54%, -2.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
467, 15.98%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.44, -6.23%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2239, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2186, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2132, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8137, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8304, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8240, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
15.13, -0.82%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.84, -0.02%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9

5
Bearish Indications
2
6
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – CPI, U.S – Consumer confidence, Trade balance
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. The FED rate hike is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Risky segments of the market like emerging markets are breaking down on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2270 (up) and 2250 (down) on the S & P and 8100 (up) and 7900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Wednesday, 21 December 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the trends in play that may continue till year end:

Tuesday, 20 December 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the impact of recent monetary policy action on the Euro and the Yen:

How to Protect Your Retirement Funds from Tax Erosion

There is a popular myth that suggests that the stock market is only for professionals and investing is rather complicated. This has forced several investors to shy away from the stock market. Thus most ordinary investors tend to over look the proven way of beating inflation and protecting their retirement savings from tax erosion. A systematic investment plan popularly referred to as the SIP dispels this myth and provides a way for the ordinary investor to make extraordinary amounts of money over a period of time.

Inflation and taxes greatly erode individuals disposable income and hence their propensity to save. While it is possible to achieve inflation adjusted returns through certain investments the investor may still be required to pay taxes on these returns. In facts most income from investment products like stocks, bonds, real estate assets and even pension income is taxable. Hence a proper tax planning strategy is mandatory for investors.
This is where an SIP comes in.

The beauty of an SIP is that you don't have to invest huge money of money upfront. Instead you have an objective in mind and work towards it gradually. You pick a regular investment schedule and invest consistently in the market over time. This way you take the element of market timing out of investing and simply Rupee cost average over time.

If the market goes down you buy more and if it goes up you buy less. Either way you systematically accumulate wealth over time.SIP's can be done on a wide range of individual stocks and mutual funds. You can have a SIP strategy based on your age and risk tolerance.  Are you considering buying a car or even a house? Maybe you are planning for your retirement or are planning for an extended vacation.  Regardless of what your aspirations maybe the SIP may be the right investment for you.

With a plethora of investment products out there it can be a rather daunting task for the average investor to sift through all of them. Look no further than one of India’s largest fund families Birla Sun Life.  The range of products offered by Birla Sun Life takes the guess work out of investing. Recently Birla Sun Life rolled out their Sabse Important Plan (#BirlaSIP).

The Sabse Important Plan (#BirlaSIP) helps you get familiar with the world of SIP investing and gives you some unique SIP options on some world class investment products run by some of the top asset managers in India. There are a wide range of mutual funds available at your disposal on which you can custom build your SIP. You can craft your own and unique asset allocation strategy by checking out Birla Sun Life’s asset allocation tool.

The Sabse Important Plan (#BirlaSIP) seeks to be your one stop shop for all your SIP needs.  As an investor you get the following benefits:
a1)   You accomplish your goals steadily over time.
b2)   You accumulate significant wealth over time without worrying about the gyrations in the market.
c3)   You Rupee cost average over time into some of India’s best mutual funds.
d4)   You generate significant returns over time by taking relatively lower risk.

Increasingly worried about your dreams and goals? Need some smart financial and tax planning? Why wait any longer?  Do it yourself like a pro with the SabseImportant Plan (#BirlaSIP) from India’s trusted asset manager Birla Sun Life. This way you shield your retirement nest egg from the evil effects of inflation and tax erosion and build considerable wealth over time.

Monday, 19 December 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the macro themes in play this week:

Sunday, 18 December 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the S & P 500, Dollar and the Yen:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 19

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2258, -0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8140, -1.48%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3123, -3.40%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1137, -2.11%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
52.95, 2.82%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.56, -3.14%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
946, -13.21%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.045, -1.02%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
117.97, 2.34%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9168, -2.55%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.29, -0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.60%, 5.40%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
403, 16.66%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.20, 3.83%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2223, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2174, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2125, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8128, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8372, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8214, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
15.25, 1.23%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.85, 0.56%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6

3
Bearish Indications
8
13
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
New Zealand - GDP, Japan – Rate decision, U.S – GDP, durable goods, Canada – CPI, GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market outlook


The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The FED rate hike is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Transports are beginning to under perform. Bond yields have made a dramatic surge up and risky segments of the market like emerging markets are breaking down on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2270 (up) and 2250 (down) on the S & P and 8200 (up) and 8050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.