About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 31 December 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 01

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2674, -0.36%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10531, 0.36%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3307, 0.31%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1309, 2.39%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
60.42, 3.34%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.30, 1.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1366, -4.48%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2005, 1.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.66, -0.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10612, -0.59%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.72, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.41%, -3.22%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
559, 8.38%
Neutral
Bullish
US Vix
11.04, 11.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
137
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2664, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2617, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2482, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10322, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10316, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9818, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.67, 9.34%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
63.83, -0.27%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
9
Bearish Indications
4
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – PMI’s, Euro Zone –German PMI, German employment data, CPI, UK – PMI’s, U.S – ISM PMI’s, FOMC minutes, Oil inventories, Employment data,  Canada – PMI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals january 01

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2685 (up) and 2665(down) on the S & P and 10600 (up) and 10450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Sunday, 24 December 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 25

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2683, 0.28%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10493, 1.55%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3297, 0.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1279, 1.69%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
58.47, 1.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.24, 3.32%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1430, -14.27%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1862, 0.96%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
113.29, 0.61%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10675, 2.71%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
36.63, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.49%, 5.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
516, 6.61%
Neutral
Bullish
US Vix
9.90, 5.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
134
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2653, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2607, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2476, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10289, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10292, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9786, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.59, -22.44%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.00, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
12
Bearish Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
U.S – Consumer confidence, Home sales, Oil inventories
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals december 25
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2695 (up) and 2670(down) on the S & P and 10600 (up) and 10400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 


 

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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.