About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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The Case for a Global Recession in 2017 and Beyond – The Obvious Evidence

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Tuesday, 31 January 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the weakening dollar following the recent trade war posturing:

Monday, 30 January 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the upcoming week which is loaded with economic news flow. The FED, BOJ, BOE, US payrolls and India's union budget are set to take center stage:

Saturday, 28 January 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 30

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2295, 1.03%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8641, 3.50%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3159, 1.15%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1188, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
53.17, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.69, 2.46%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
827, -10.59%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.070, -0.03%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
115.08, 0.44%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9444, 2.38%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.00, 0.68%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.48%, 0.57%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
682, 8.73%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
10.58, -8.32%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2272, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2245, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2156, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8355, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8201, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8327, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
16.00, 1.36%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
68.09, -0.00%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10

10
Bearish Indications
3
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China - PMI, Japan – Rate decision, New Zealand - Employment data, Euro zone – CPI, German employment data, CPI, UK – Rate decision, Canada – GDP, U.S – Personal consumption data, ISM data, Consumer confidence, FOMC rate decision, Employment data, India - Union budget 2017
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals january 30

The S and P 500 the Nifty moved up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Bond yields are surging back up. The critical levels to watch are 2310 (up) and 2290 (down) on the S & P and 8700 (up) and 8600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

Thursday, 26 January 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the upcoming US GDP report:

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at equities, valuations and volatility:

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the Pound and the S & P 500:

Monday, 23 January 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the Dollar and the S & P 500:

Sunday, 22 January 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at global trade policy taking center stage following president Trump taking office:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 23

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2271, -0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8349, -0.61%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3123, 0.33%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1205, 0.73%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
53.22, 1.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.62, -2.42%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
925, 1.65%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.070, 0.55%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
114.52, 0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9225, 0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
36.75, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.47%, 3.66%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
628, -2.58%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.54, 2.76%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2265, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2233, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2150, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8254, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8170, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8310, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.79, 9.79%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
68.09, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7

7
Bearish Indications
4
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – CPI, New Zealand – CPI, Japan – CPI,
U.K – GDP,
US – Durable Goods, Trade balance, GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals january 23


The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Bond yields are surging back up. The critical levels to watch are 2280 (up) and 2260 (down) on the S & P and 8400 (up) and 8300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.