About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 15 January 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 16

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2275, -0.10%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8400, 1.90%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3113, -1.32%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1196, 1.94%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
52.37, -3.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.69, 5.66%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
910, -5.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.064, 1.05%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
114.49, -2.07%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9202, 1.08%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.78, 0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.38%, -1.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
644, 11.64%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.23, -0.80%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2264, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2219, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2146, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8164, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8179, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8292, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.38, -3.55%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.15, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10

11
Bearish Indications
4
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data, China – GDP, Canada – Rate decision, CPI, Euro zone – ECB rate decision, ZEW survey, U.K - CPI, U.S – CPI, Presidential inauguration
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals january 16

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The FED rate hike is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. The sudden surge in the Yen is worrisome. The critical levels to watch are 2290 (up) and 2260 (down) on the S & P and 8500 (up) and 8300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.