About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Monday, 27 February 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the week ahead:

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at stocks, oil and volatility:

Sunday, 26 February 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 27

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2367, 0.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8940, 1.34%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3253, 1.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1258, 1.55%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
53.99, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.70, -0.41%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
875, 18.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.058, -0.34%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
112.14, -0.63%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9422, -0.77%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
37.15, 0.51%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.31%, -4.45%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
812, 4.32%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.47, -0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2320, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2288, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2179, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8776, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8451, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8421, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.40, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Rupee
66.64, -0.65%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10

11
Bearish Indications
2
2
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is in melt up mode. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – GDP, China – PMI, Japan –CPI, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, Euro zone CPI, GDP, Switzerland – GDP, U.K – GDP, Canada – GDP, U.S – Durable goods, Consumer confidence, Trade balance, Personal consumption data, GDP, ISM data, Yellen speech, Canada – Rate decision, GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals february 27

The S and P 500 and the Nifty moved up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. The Vix, transports and the flight to quality bid emerging in treasuries, the dollar and yen are suggesting that risk reward is shifting towards the downside. The critical levels to watch are 2380 (up) and 2360 (down) on the S & P and 9000 (up) and 8850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Friday, 24 February 2017

Financial Markets - The Calm before the Storm

Thursday, 23 February 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at some key crosses, gold, silver and the S and P 500:


Tuesday, 21 February 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the Mexican Peso:

Monday, 20 February 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at some key events which have had little impact on markets:

Sunday, 19 February 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the week ahead:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 20

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2351, 1.51%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8822, 0.32%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3202, 0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1239, 0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
53.78, -0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.71, -2.20%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
741, 5.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.062, -0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
112.89, -0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9495, 1.08%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.96, 0.16%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.43%, 0.66%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
779, 13.50%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.49, 5.90%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2303, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2279, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2173, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8684, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8395, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8397, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.43, 1.94%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.08, 0.32%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7

6
Bearish Indications
3
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is in melt up mode. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
U.K – GDP, Carney speech, Euro zone – Euro zone CPI, U.S – FOMC minutes, Canada - CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals february 20


The S and P 500 and the Nifty moved up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Risk reward is shifting towards the downside. The critical levels to watch are 2360 (up) and 2340 (down) on the S & P and 8900 (up) and 8750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.