About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Saturday, 4 February 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 6

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2297, 0.12%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8741, 1.15%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3140, -0.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1221, 2.73%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
53.83, 1.24%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.62, -2.73%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
752, -9.07%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.079, 0.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.61, -2.11%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9242, -2.15%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.88, 0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.49%, 0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
654, -4.10%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
10.97, 3.69%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2278, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2255, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2161, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8473, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8268, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8352, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.13, -17.98%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.17, -1.35%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6

9
Bearish Indications
7
6
Outlook
Bearish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – New loan data, Australia – Rate decision, New Zealand – Rate decision,  U.S - U. Mich. consumer confidence,  Canada –Employment data, India - RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals february 6

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty moved up last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Bond yields are surging back up. Transports are under performing and the Baltic dry index is crashing again. The critical levels to watch are 2310 (up) and 2290 (down) on the S & P and 8800 (up) and 8700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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