About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Friday 31 March 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is the daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets:

Tuesday 28 March 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is the daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets:

Monday 27 March 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is the daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets:

Sunday 26 March 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is the daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 27

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2344, -1.44%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
9108, -0.57%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3269, 0.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1249, 1.49%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
47.97, -2.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.63, -2.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1240, 5.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.080, 0. 70%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.27, -1.27%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8929, -2.37%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.54, -0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.40%, -4.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
223, -30.55%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.96, 14.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
137
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2369, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2330, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2208, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9007, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8787, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8522, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.98, 1.05%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.38, -0.18%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7

8
Bearish Indications
8
8
Outlook
Bearish
Neutral
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The market is beginning a break down. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – PMI, Japan - CPI, Euro zone – German and Euro CPI, German employment data,
U.S – Trade balance, Consumer confidence, Janet Yellen Speech, GDP, Canada - GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals march 27


The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Market internals, transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2360 (up) and 2330 (down) on the S & P and 9200 (up) and 9000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

Friday 24 March 2017

Interesting Market News Views and Analysis -1

Thursday 23 March 2017

Identifying Highly Probable Trade Patterns

Today's insight from the currency strategists at dailyfx is all about identifying high probability trades and trade setups. This helps you minimize losses and become a better trader over time:

Wednesday 22 March 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the break in the Dollar and the S & P 500:

Monday 20 March 2017

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the Dollar, Pound and Yen crosses:

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the implications of faltering risk appetite:

Sunday 19 March 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 20

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2378, 0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
9160, 2.52%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3237, 0.77%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1230, 2.40%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
49.31, 1.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.69, 3.72%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1172, 10.15%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.073, 0. 50%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.66, -1.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9146, -1.55%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.63, 0.83%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.50%, -3.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
321, -27.13%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.28, -3.26%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2372, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2323, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2202, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8948, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8702, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8499, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.85, -15.08%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.50, -1.46%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
12

14
Bearish Indications
3
2
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is way over bought on sentiment. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
New Zealand – Rate decision, UK – CPI, Canada - CPI, 
U.S – Durable goods, Janet Yellen Speech
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals march 20 2017


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Market internals, transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2390 (up) and 2370 (down) on the S & P and 9200 (up) and 9100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.