About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 19 March 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 20

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2378, 0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
9160, 2.52%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3237, 0.77%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1230, 2.40%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
49.31, 1.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.69, 3.72%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1172, 10.15%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.073, 0. 50%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.66, -1.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9146, -1.55%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.63, 0.83%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.50%, -3.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
321, -27.13%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.28, -3.26%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2372, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2323, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2202, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8948, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8702, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8499, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.85, -15.08%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.50, -1.46%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
12

14
Bearish Indications
3
2
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is way over bought on sentiment. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
New Zealand – Rate decision, UK – CPI, Canada - CPI, 
U.S – Durable goods, Janet Yellen Speech
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals march 20 2017


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Market internals, transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2390 (up) and 2370 (down) on the S & P and 9200 (up) and 9100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.