About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 9 April 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 10

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2356, -0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
9198, 0.27%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3287, 1.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1257, 0.50%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
52.24, 3.24%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.65, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1223, -5.71%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.060, -0.59%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
111.09, -0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9105, -0.13%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
36.76, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.37%, -0.96%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
405, 24.74%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.87, 4.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
133
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2361, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2347, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2222, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9121, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8927, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8567, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.69, -5.86%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.48, -0.50%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7

9
Bearish Indications
4
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is beginning a break down. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – Kuroda speech, China – Loan data, CPI, Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – German ZEW survey, UK – Carney speech, CPI,  
U.S – Retail sales, U. Mich. Consumer confidence, Yellen speech, CPI, Canada – Rate decision,
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral
 

stock market signals april 10



The S and P 500 and the Nifty were little changed last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Market internals, transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2365 (up) and 2345 (down) on the S & P and 9250 (up) and 9100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.