About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Friday 8 May 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Upcoming Week beginning May11

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2116, 0.40%	Neutral**	Neutral
Nifty	8192, 0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	4206, -5.3%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1187, 0.90%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	59.5, 0.40%	Neutral	Neutral
Copper	2.91, -0.90%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	574, -2.20%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.120, 0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	119.76, -0.3%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	8767, 0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
Nyse Summation Index	306, -37%	Bearish	Bearish
US Vix	12.86, 1.30%	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2102, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2089, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2030, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8417, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	8574, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8271, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	19.11, 11%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	63.75, 0.1%	Neutral	Neutral

Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	4	1
Bearish Indications	5	9
Outlook	Marginally Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The Sand P 500 is at the top of its trading range while the Nifty is at the lower end of its range. The summation index is still flashing warning signs.
On the Horizon	Greece, Italy and German GDP, US PPI and retail sales

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

I have added three new indicators this week, the Chinese stock market index, the India Vix and the Dollar/Rupee rate.

Friday 1 May 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the week of May4

Indicator	Weekly Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	-0.40%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	-1.50%	Neutral	Bearish
Gold	-0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	3.20%	Bullish	Bearish
Copper	7.30%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	-2.20%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	3.00%	Bullish	Bullish
Yen	-1.10%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	-1.60%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	-14.10%	Bearish	Bearish
US Vix	3.30%	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	Below	Neutral	Bearish

Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	3
Bearish Indications	5	10
Outlook	Marginally Bullish	Bearish
Observation	Summation index and Vix are flashing warning signs
On the Horizon	US Payrolls, Greece, UK elections

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Index
Raw Data	Courtesy yahoo finance, Stock charts

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.