About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday 13 September 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 14


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1961, 2.07%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7789, 1.75%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3200, 1.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1108, -1.28%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
44.78, -2.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.45, 6.06%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
818, -6.51%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1336, 1.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
120.58, 1.28%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
8052, 3.31%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.18%, 2.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-553, 10.42%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
23.20, 16.55%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1979, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2048, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2071, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7957, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8276, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8415, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
24.98, -5.48%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.29,- 0.61%
Neutral
Bullish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
10

Bearish Indications
7
7

Outlook
Marginally Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 and Nifty rebounded last week. Indicators are bullish.
After a bounce early in the week looking for weakness in the Nifty and the S and P 500 to resume with a possible retest of earlier lows post the FOMC.


On the Horizon
Euro zone ZEW Survey, US, Canada and UK CPI, US Retail Sales, US FOMC and Swiss rate decisions, New Zealand GDP.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The markets recovered last week. Signals are nominally bullish for the upcoming week and markets are in #crash mode. The #SandP500 and several global indices are completing massive bear flags which should resolve to the downside post the Fed. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.

Thursday 10 September 2015

Interesting Charts from the World of Economics and Financial Markets-2


The first two charts are from John Rubino at dollarcollapse.com that shows that the Japanese economy hasn't recovered despite the record stimulus from the Bank of Japan:
BOJ balance sheet 2015
Japan GDP Sept 2015
2) The next chart is from Ashraf  Laidi who compares the Dollar's performance during past Fed tightening cycles and suggests the #Dollar may have peaked already:
Fed Tightening Cycles & USD Performance - Fedfunds Usdx Sep 7 (Chart 1)

3) The last chart is from John Hampson at solarcycles.net that shows that the #SandP500 is in significantly over valued territory:
29augu11


You can see some more interesting charts here.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.