About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday 8 November 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 9

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2099, 0.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7954,- 1.38%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3590, 6.13%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1089, -4.62%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
44.52, -4.03%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.24, -3.15%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
631, -12.48%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.0743, -2.40%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
123.17, 2.07%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
8241, 1.39%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.33%, 8.46%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
503, 21.99%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
14.33, -4.91%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2060, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1997, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2063, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8149, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7988, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8375, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
19.47, 8.91%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.06, 1.03%
Neutral
Bearish





Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
5

Bearish Indications
6
12

Outlook
Bullish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was up and the Nifty significantly under performed last week. Indicators are bullish for the S & P but bearish for the Nifty. The Vix is still indicating complacency. Looking for a pull back soon.


On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data, China – Loan data, CPI, Euro Zone – German & Euro zone GDP, U.S – Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




The US market was up last week while the Nifty sold off sharply. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week and the recent rally is on the verge of completion. The markets are likely to correct soon, with most emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and a hawkish FED. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Tuesday 3 November 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-5

1) As China's Stock Market Crashed, These Hedge Funds Rose 70% - Bloomberg

China’s summer market selloff wasn’t a total rout if you were one of the country’s top-performing hedge funds that gained an average 70 percent as almost 1,300 other funds were wiped out."

2) Europe in Deflation: Got (cheap) Milk? - The Market Oracle

Europe in Deflation: Got (cheap) Milk? :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website"

3) S&P 500 Earnings On Track For First Fall Since 2009 - Investor's Business Daily

S&P 500 companies appear set for their first year-over-year earnings decline since 2009, led by energy woes and a sluggish global economy."






4) Wall Street's October stock-market performance was scary good - MarketWatch

What a difference a couple months can make. Shrugging off global-growth fears that dogged the market back in August, Wall Street managed to log one of its best monthly gains in years."

5)The global stock market crash, explained

Why investors in Europe, China, and the United States all got spooked on Monday."

6) Memo to Bulls: Stock Market Crash Looming in 2016 - Profit Confidential

The bulls are starting break open the champagne, but the chance of a stock market crash in 2016 is growing."





Sunday 1 November 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 2

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2079, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8066,- 2.77%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3383, -0.88%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1142, -1.92%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
46.39, 3.71%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.32, -1.38%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
721, -6.85%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1007, -0.07%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
120.61, -0.70%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8128, -2.02%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.15%, 3.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
412, 10.55%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
15.07, 4.22%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2034, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1980, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2062, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8172, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8016, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8375, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.88, 10.42%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.39, 0.58%
Neutral
Bearish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
2

Bearish Indications
8
13

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty significantly under performed last week. Indicators are bearish. The Vix is still indicating complacency. Looking for a top soon.


On the Horizon
 Australia – RBA rate decision, New Zealand – Employment data, Canada - Employment data, U.K – Asset Purchases, BOE rate decision, U.S – ISM, Employment data.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



The US market was unchanged last week while the Nifty sold off sharply. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week and the recent bounce is on the verge of completion. The markets are likely top out soon, with most emerging markets and commodities already breaking down. There will be more& downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P
500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Stock Market News

Amazon Deals

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.